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Q2 2021 Market Commentary
Scott Hohman, CFP®, AIF®
As we find ourselves in the midst of summer, temperatures aren’t the only thing that’s been on the rise. The U.S. economy is red hot this quarter. Many factors have contributed to this: pent-up demand, stimulus money, and easy year-over-year profit comparisons from last year’s lockdown. Additionally, Wall Street expectations on corporate profits for later this year and into 2022 have been ratcheted upwards all year, alluding to higher earnings which are also partly responsible for the rallying stocks that we’re seeing this quarter. The S&P 500 index rose +8.17% from April 1st to June 30th this year, and it’s rallied +92.08% since Covid-19 fears peaked on March 23, 2020.
While this may seem like good news, we have to be vigilant because a red-hot economy could lead to sustained inflationary pressures, which could cause the Fed to become less stock market-friendly with regards to its interest rate policy. Because of this, the bond market has grown more cautious knowing the Fed is now on inflation watch. At the beginning of this second quarter, the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond was +1.69%, by June 30th, the yield has dropped to +1.45%. Witnessing the stock and bond markets out of synch like this leads us to wonder, is the bond market too cautious, or is the stock market too optimistic about the economy?
Looking ahead, our research indicates the positive earnings estimate trends, that have led to higher stock prices, are likely to persist into the second half of the year. We are currently tracking the earnings outlooks rising at a rate even better than last quarter. If this plays out, this could be a positive factor for a fantastic earnings season to provide support for higher stock prices in the next quarter.
Therefore, we want to plan to continue participating in the stock rally, but not be greedy. We will continue to follow this data to help us determine a strategy for when we believe rebalancing back to neutral or cautious levels should get Implemented. Until then, we hope you have a great rest of your summer!
Take a look at our Quarterly Market Review for insights on statistics and trends in domestic and global stock markets.
**All market return data, reference to earnings growth, etc. is all provided by The Earnings Scout, LLC**
The views expressed represent the opinion of Resolute Wealth Advisor, Inc. (RWA). The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While RWA believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and the RWA’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in equity securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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